Dow Jones Futures Rise With Jobs Report Due; Tesla Cuts Prices, Exxon Near Huge Shale Deal

Dow Jones futures rose modestly Friday morning, with the jobs report due before the open. Tesla (TSLA), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) were in focus before the open.


The September jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a gain of 160,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.7%. Average hourly earnings should climb 4.3% vs. a year earlier, steady with August.

That comes with stock market trying to rally, with Treasury yields surging to long-term highs in recent days and weeks. For now, it’s still a stock market correction. There’s been no follow-through day to confirm the uptrend.

TSLA stock fell slightly before the open. Overnight, Tesla cut U.S. prices of the Model 3 and Y. That follows weak third-quarter deliveries and other negative news this week.

XOM stock retreated modestly on reports that Exxon Mobil is close to a $60 billion deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). PXD stock soared.

TSM stock rose slightly. Taiwan Semiconductor reported a smaller-than-expected decline in September revenue, helped by demand for AI and other advanced chips. Taiwan Semi makes chips for AI leader Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and many others. NVDA stock nudged higher.

Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) sold off in premarket trade. The maker of test gear for silicon carbide chips used in EVs slightly topped fiscal Q1 views, but didn’t raise full-year guidance.

Nvidia (NVDA) is on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla on the Leaderboard watchlist. TSLA stock is on SwingTrader. Nvidia and Tesla are on the IBD 50 and IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%. TSLA stock is a modest drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose a few basis points to 4.75% after slipping to 4.715% on Thursday.

Crude oil prices rose slightly, but crude and gasoline futures have tumbled this week.

Copper futures rose more than 1%.

The September jobs report will no doubt swing Dow futures and Treasury yields Friday morning.

Tesla Price Cuts

Tesla cut Model 3 and Model Y prices overnight. It reduced the base Model 3 RWD price by $1,250 to $38,990, the Model 3 LR by $1,250 to $45,990 and the Model 3 Performance by $2,250 to $53,240. The EV giant cut the Model Y LR by $2,000 to $48,490 and the Model Y Performance by $2,000 to $52,490.

Tesla also trimmed Model Y prices in Norway. That could presage other cuts in Europe.

The EV giant has been offering substantial discounts on inventory vehicles in the U.S. and Europe. Still, the latest official price cuts reflect continued Tesla demand concerns and pressure on profit margins.

On Monday night, Tesla launched a new cheaper Model Y in the U.S. The Model Y RWD starts at $43,990, which was $3,750 cheaper than a prior base Y that is no longer available.

Early Monday, Tesla reported a larger-than-expected decline in third-quarter deliveries.

Tesla Stock

TSLA stock fell more than 1% in premarket trade Friday.

Bulls have shrugged off bad news this week, betting than an updated Model 3 and the upcoming Cybertruck will buoy demand in the near future, along with long-term speculative bets on self-driving, robots and more.

Tesla stock flashed an aggressive buy signal Wednesday, jumping 5.9% and moving decisively above the 50-day line in higher volume. Shares are right around another early entry from a downtrend in the handle. TSLA stock has an official 278.98 buy point from a cup-with-handle base.

Shares held their ground Thursday, just edging down 0.45% to 259.98.

Exxon Shale Deal Talks

Exxon Mobil could seal a deal for shale drilling pioneer Pioneer in days, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday night, assuming last-minute talks don’t hit a roadblock.

That would give Exxon Mobil a massive presence in the oil-rich Permian Basin.

Exxon Mobil reportedly was in early talks for Pioneer Natural Resources in April.

Pioneer Natural Resources stock closed Thursday with a $50.1 billion market cap. Exxon stock has a $436 billion valuation.

In premarket trading Friday, PXD stock leapt 10%. On Thursday, Pioneer Natural slipped 0.2% to 214.96.

XOM stock retreated nearly 3% before the open. On Thursday, shares fell 2.25% to 108.89, closing below their 200-day line. Exxon stock broke out on Sept. 27, clearing a 118.84 buy point, but has sold off since as energy prices retreat.

Taiwan Semiconductor Sales

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported September sales fell 13% vs. a year earlier in local currency terms. For the quarter, revenue fell 11%, but that modestly beat views.

Taiwan Semiconductor is the world’s largest chip foundry, making chips for Apple, Nvidia and many others.

Strength in AI chips, presumably Nvidia, helped offset weakness in chips for smartphones and laptops.

TSM stock rose 1% in premarket trade.  Shares are trying to break a downtrend going back nearly four months, but have been pinned by a sliding 21-day line. Taiwan Semi stock is well below the 50-day and 200-day lines.

Nvidia stock rose a fraction early Friday, signaling a test of the 50-day line. A decisive move above the 50-day line would offer an early entry. NVDA stock is due to have a new base after Friday’s close.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Please follow Ed Carson on X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson and Threads at @edcarson1971 for stock market updates and more.


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