(Bloomberg) — Republican and White House negotiators are moving closer to an agreement to raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years, according to people familiar with the matter, as time grows short to avert a catastrophic US default.
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The two sides have narrowed differences in talks over recent days, according to the people, though the details agreed to are tentative and a final accord is still not in hand. The two sides have yet to agree on the amount of the cap.
Under the terms of the emerging agreement, defense spending would be permitted to rise 3% next year in line with President Joe Biden’s budget request.
The accord would also include a measure to upgrade the nation’s electric grid to accommodate renewable energy, a key climate goal, while speeding permits for pipelines and other fossil fuel projects that the GOP favors, people familiar with the deal said.
The deal would cut $10 billion from an $80 billion budget increase for the Internal Revenue Service that Biden won as part of his infrastructure bill. Republicans have warned of a wave of agents and audits while Democrats said the increase would pay for itself through less tax cheating.
What is taking shape would be far more limited than the opening offer from Republicans, who called for raising the debt ceiling through next March in exchange for 10 years of spending caps. House conservatives were already balking Thursday at the notion of a small deal, with the House Freedom Caucus sending a letter to McCarthy demanding he hold firm.
The tentative agreement on the two-year debt limit increase was previously reported by the New York Times.
Read More: Modeling US Debt-Ceiling Risk as Talks X-Date Nears
“We know where our differences lie,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters at the Capitol, adding that he planned to work through the holiday weekend there.
“We do not have an agreement yet. We knew this would not be easy. It’s hard, but we’re working. And we’re gonna continue to work till we get this done,” he said.
US Treasury yields across the board edged higher. Shares opened marginally higher in Japan and South Korea, with Australia’s benchmark little changed. Hong Kong’s market is closed for a public holiday.
Read more: McCarthy Vows to Work Through Long Weekend on Debt Deal
Should a deal be reached soon, Tuesday is emerging as the likely day for a House vote. The Senate would then have to act quickly to send it to Biden’s desk before June 1, the date by which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said her department could run out of cash.
The following day sees a payment due to millions of Social Security beneficiaries, putting pressure on politicians to resolve the impasse.
‘Glad the Market’s Closed’
Representative Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican and one of the negotiators, asked Thursday evening what he would tell investors about the progress of the talks, quipped, “Glad the market’s closed.” McHenry, the chairman of the Financial Services Committee, is one of McCarthy’s chief negotiators.
Fitch Ratings Wednesday placed the AAA credit rating for the US on watch for a potential downgrade. The US lost its AAA grade at S&P Global Ratings during a similar partisan standoff on the debt ceiling in 2011.
The White House and the Treasury said the Fitch move demonstrated the urgency of reaching a speedy resolution to the dispute. But McCarthy said that he wasn’t worried about Fitch’s announcement, and that negotiators didn’t need the ratings agency to remind them of the importance of concluding a deal.
Negotiators have been clashing over the scale and length of limits on spending to be included in a bill raising or suspending the debt ceiling. Economists have warned that even with a deal that avoids a devastating payments default, caps on government outlays could help to tip the US into a recession.
The administration has also objected to Republican moves to expand work requirements for some recipients of federal assistance. A White House official on Thursday said both sides are dug in on the issue and the president is fighting policies that push Americans into poverty or take away their health care.
–With assistance from Jarrell Dillard, Steven T. Dennis, Erik Wasson, Josh Wingrove and Jennifer Jacobs.
(Updates to add contributor.)
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