Tyler Reddick enters the Charlotte Roval just two points outside the top eight

Can Tyler Reddick jump into the top eight at the Charlotte Roval?

Reddick enters the final race of the second round (2 p.m. ET, NBC) in ninth in the standings and two points behind Brad Keselowski in eighth. Given Reddick’s success on road courses, it will be more of a surprise if he doesn’t make the third round of the playoffs than if he does.

Three of Reddick’s five career wins have come on road courses and he has two top-10 finishes in three starts at the Roval. That’s why he enters the race as the No. 3 favorite at +800 behind Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and William Byron.

TALLADEGA, AL - OCTOBER 01: Tyler Reddick (#45 23XI Racing McDonald's Toyota) looks on prior to the running of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff YellaWood 500 on October 01, 2023, at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Three of Tyler Reddick’s five career NASCAR Cup Series wins have come on road courses. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Reddick’s 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace sits 10th in the standings and is seven points behind Reddick. His road course track record isn’t nearly as good. Wallace has scored just one top five at a road course in his Cup Series career and has one top-10 finish in five Roval starts. His odds to win on Sunday are a whopping +10000 and by far the longest of any of the 12 playoff drivers.

Ross Chastain is a point behind Wallace in 11th in the standings while Kyle Busch is 26 points back of eighth in 12th. Busch can mathematically make the third round without winning on Sunday but the odds of that happening are low. He’d need trouble to hit the four drivers directly ahead of him in the standings. Busch enters the race as the No. 7 favorite at +1200.

Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.

The favorites

  • Chase Elliott (+600)

  • William Byron (+600)

  • Tyler Reddick (+800)

  • Kyle Larson (+800)

  • Michael McDowell (+1000)

  • AJ Allmendinger (+1000)

Elliott is still searching for his first win of the season but his No. 9 car is in the owner’s playoffs. That’s important, because the owner playoffs is where most of the money is. He has two wins in five Roval starts and an average finish of eighth.

Byron won at Watkins Glen in August and has two top-10 finishes in five starts. Larson has one Roval win in four starts and authored one of the wildest moments at the track when he bounced his damaged car off the wall on the final lap to advance in the playoffs. McDowell won at the Indianapolis road course in August while Allmendinger is one of the best road course racers in NASCAR and has a top five and two top 10s in three Roval Cup Series starts.

Good mid-tier value

  • Christopher Bell (+1600)

  • Chris Buescher (+2000)

Bell won this race a year ago and has two top 10s in three starts. He’s the best value play of the weekend. Buescher has finished in the top 10 twice in five Roval starts and his worst road course finish this season is 11th.

Don’t bet this driver

McDowell is extremely overvalued at these odds. Yes, he’s been very good at road courses with the current Cup Series car. But he’s now out of the playoffs and has never finished in the top 10 at the Roval. It’ll be a stunner if McDowell ends up in victory lane.

Looking for a long shot?

Chastain’s Roval history isn’t good and his performance in 2023 has taken a step back from a season ago. But he’s not a bad road course racer and will need to be aggressive throughout the race to get into the top eight.

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