Republicans are focused on a relatively small number of states for Senate races in 2024.
For Senate Democrats, 2024 has long been year zero.
That’s when the party faces the daunting task of defending seats in nearly half the country – in reliable red states, light blue states and states with suddenly open races.
For Republicans, it’s a chance to capitalize on a one-in-a-generation card that overwhelmingly allows their rural white voter base to build a sustainable GOP majority that could take a decade or more for Democrats to reverse. .
The GOP, however, already suggests its focus could be much, much narrower.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN in May that the party is focusing on a relatively small number of races where its chances of victory are greatest: Montana, Ohio and West Virginia – states where former President Donald Trump won by eight percentage points or more in 2020 — and Pennsylvania, where party agents believe former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick, who lost last year’s primary to Mehmet Oz, could be a formidable challenger for Democratic Sen. Bob Casey.
The rest of the map may become useless.
“I don’t think anyone sees a real possibility for us in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada to win those races,” said a Republican who has worked on Senate races and asked for anonymity to speak candidly. referring to three presidential states where Republicans should, theoretically, be in contention.
McConnell, always known for choosing his words carefully, has left the impression that the party is about to give up on some eternal battlegrounds, either because their benches are too MAGA or because McConnell can’t find recruits who fit his preferred profile – a boardroom Republican. with a business or military background that also has millions available to self-fund a campaign.
With just two seats between McConnell and a GOP Senate majority, the Kentucky Republican may not have to think twice This great to get what he wants.
“The philosophy of McConnell and his world has always been to think smaller, to put all your eggs in the basket that you have the best chance of winning, rather than going on the offensive trying to find new baskets “said the Republican agent. , noting that Republican attempts to get big backfired dramatically in 2022.
“We really thought it was going to be an opportunity to go on the offensive and win a big majority, and it didn’t work out,” the person said. “So for survival reasons, the party can’t afford to stand this way, because people are going to compare it to what happened in the previous cycle.”
McConnell himself acknowledged there was still room for Republicans to “do this” — his hit to the ineligible list that killed GOP hopes of a Senate majority in 2022. Who could forget Oz, the famous doctor who didn’t seem to know anything on the state in which he was running? Or Herschel Walker, who lied about siring two secret children? Or weird tech guy Blake Masters who hit on a political third rail when he talked about privatization of social security?
For JB Poersch, Senate Majority Chairman PAC and chief political lieutenant to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (DN.Y.), McConnell’s comments revealed not a lack of ambition, but recognition that the GOP establishment can’t do much. avoid the nomination of politically toxic candidates in certain states.
“I’m not sure it’s as interesting an exercise as dealing with the minefield of Donald Trump and right-wing MAGA candidates,” Poersch said.
He added a note of caution for Democrats, whose own expansive ambitions have crashed and burned in the past“There are a lot of things about this card that are still up in the air. There’s a lot of places we don’t know who [GOP] candidates are or what it looks like.
Already, some top Republicans have dropped out of the race rather than run for MAGA votes or fight – maybe literally — for Donald Trump’s endorsement. Luckily for McConnell this time around, Trump doesn’t seem to have much of an interest in playing kingmaker as he runs for president and faces mounting legal challenges. But Trump could once again blow up the Senate map for his party by elevating candidates solely on the basis of their loyalty to him.
Earlier this month, Rep. Mike Gallagher, the Senate Republicans’ best bet in Wisconsin, a state President Joe Biden won by a full percentage point, declined pressure on him to mount a campaign for the seat. That potentially leaves Republicans with a dearth of eligible options to take on Democrat Tammy Baldwin, namely businessman Eric Hovde, the right-wing firebrand and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke or Rep. Tom Tiffany, a staunch Trump ally who voted against certification of the 2020 election results in Arizona and Michigan.
Kari Lake, now a right-wing celebrity, was rumored to be considering a Senate bid in Arizona, virtually guaranteeing Republicans wouldn’t win the general election.
In Arizona, both sides are preparing for the return of Kari Lake, the GOP candidate last year for governor, after the ex-governor. Doug Ducey declined to appear.
Lake, who used her last election to propel her into the world of right-wing influencers, is set to join the contest for the seat held by Democratic-turned-independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, who has confused the political world by refuse to say if she wants another term. Without specifically mentioning Lake, McConnell, who sometimes found a useful ally in Sinema, suggested to CNN that the party would abandon Arizona altogether if the right candidate did not make it out of the primary.
Lake’s telegenic brand is strong among the GOP base, but she would almost certainly wreck another general election, operatives on the ground warn. “I guess Lake’s constituency has shrunk since she ran for governor because of the narrative she’s running on,” said Chuck Coughlin, a former Republican who runs a political consulting firm in Arizona. , citing his prominent adherence to election lies. both align more with Trump and challenge his own electoral defeat. “She’s in the fantasy world of butterflies.”
In Nevada, Republicans are counting on U.S. Army Capt. Sam Brown, who lost the 2022 Senate primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 20 points. Brown, who has yet to declare a campaign, is nonetheless the Republican National Senate Committee’s pick to take on Democrat Jacky Rosen. The party’s dream candidate, the ex-governor. Brian Sandoval, never seemed to give the race serious attention even though Biden won Nevada by a slim two-point margin.
Republicans’ biggest missed opportunity appears to be in Michigan, where the retirement of Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow opens up a seat. The GOP there, hobbled by a party apparatus controlled by extremistshas yet to land any notable candidates in a state where expand democratic power threatens to eliminate the Republicans.
It’s quite telling that no one wants to be a sacrificial lamb, not even a top legislator.Dennis Lennox, Michigan GOP consultant
CNRS has pushed John Tuttle, the vice president of the New York Stock Exchange and a native of southeast Michigan, to enter the race. But Tuttle, who splits his time between Michigan and New York, would have to overcome a dire lack of name identification. And he would likely run in the general election against Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin, a moderate who has touted his talent for courting Trump voters.
“It’s quite telling that no one wants to be a sacrificial lamb, not even a top lawmaker,” said Michigan political strategist Dennis Lennox, who noted that Republicans have a better opportunity ahead of them in 2026, when Governor Gretchen Whitmer and other Democrats across the state will be time-limited and a Republican ticket could return to power.
The outlook is much brighter for Republicans in states than McConnell said he was aiming for. Last week, Republicans in Montana landed Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company, to take on Democratic Sen. John Tester. Sheehy will likely enter a primary against Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, in a bare-knuckle contest for one of the party’s best moves to expand his card.
Republicans also have a crop of viable candidates in Ohio and West Virginia — a mix of current statewide and congressional office holders who are trying to battle Democratic senses. Sherrod Brown and Joe Manchin, whom Republicans hope cannot overcome the growing redness of their neighboring states. Manchin, like Sinema, added to the drama by not yet saying whether he will run for re-election in West Virginia, as he openly flirts with a third-party presidential bid.
Democrats are also exploring the idea of expanding their own map in Florida and Texas, the only states with Republican incumbents up for reelection where Democrats have won or come close to winning in the past decade.
Jessica Taylor, Senate and Governors’ editor of the Cook Political Report, warned that more candidates would make the jump in the coming months, which could change the outlook for Republicans in some second-tier states. Cook has so far rated Arizona, Ohio and West Virginia were ranked as draws, and the rest of the frontline Democratic seats as “leaning blue” within a year of the first primaries in 2024.
“You kind of have to work with what you’re given,” she said, “and if you can’t find candidates who would make the race more competitive, you’re kind of crippled.”