It’s the last July 4 before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary — still over six months away, yes. But still, Republicans vying for their party’s presidential nomination will be on the trail, waving to supporters in parades, shaking hands with voters and taking selfies.
But not the favorite. Donald Trump will be absent on the nation’s 247th anniversary of independence.
Mike Pence heads to Iowa, while Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida will duplicate two parades in New Hampshire, the state that also attracts Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina and the Governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, a black horse candidate, among others.
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The former president has upended the traditional expectations of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire. For decades, they have prided themselves on their discernment of presidential candidates and demanded to know them personally before casting their ballots in the first polls in the country.
Steven Cheung, spokesman for Trump’s 2024 campaign, has argued against the idea of the former president avoiding retail politics during the July 4 holiday, pointing to Trump’s rally in South Carolina on Saturday , which he said counted as Independence Day weekend. Trump also appeared at the Moms for Liberty conference in Philadelphia on Friday, and he even dropped by Pat’s King of Steaks, a cheesesteak palace that has been a mainstay of Philadelphia politicians for decades.
And on July 7, Trump will be in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
But the real anniversary of the birth of the nation?
“His campaign will have an overwhelming presence at various parades and patriotic events in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, engaging with voters and Americans who are sick of Joe Biden’s failed leadership,” said Cheung.
For Republican voters in the early states hoping for more personal attention in the fourth, the choices will be many — but not Trump. Pence, the former vice president, will walk the parade route in Urbandale, Iowa, then meet voters 35 miles north in Boone, Iowa on Tuesday.
DeSantis and Scott will both be in the July 4 parade in Merrimack, New Hampshire, as will several other Republican presidential candidates: Burgum, former Representative Will Hurd of Texas, entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, and Perry Johnson, a businessman from Michigan. Marianne Williamson, a longtime challenger to President Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination, will be there too as well as at a previous parade in Wolfeboro — where DeSantis will also be.
Biden will use a bit of presidential prerogative to host active-duty military families for a White House barbecue. He’ll also have military and veteran families, caregivers and survivors on the White House lawn for the traditional Washington fireworks display — but not before some politicking at an event with the biggest union. teachers nationwide, the National Education Association.
Trump’s campaign shows no concern that his absence from the scene will give his rivals breathing room to make up ground in the Republican primaries. After questions about his July 4 plans, his team released a memo on Monday afternoon outlining his campaign’s plans to celebrate the holidays in Iowa and New Hampshire – and calling out his dominance in primary polls. republicans.
Veteran Republicans also don’t see much opening for Trump’s rivals.
“He’s definitely playing by a different set of rules,” said David Kochel, a longtime Republican adviser and strategist in Iowa. Trump has made some recent adjustments with unscheduled stops at restaurants like Pat’s and, after his indictment on the first ever federal felony charges against a former president, at Miami’s beloved Cuban restaurant Versailles. He will appear with virtually the entire GOP field at the Republican Party’s biggest fundraiser in Iowa, the Lincoln Dinner, on July 28.
“But,” Kochel said, “his celebrity and the fact that he was president gives him more flexibility.”
The tradition of retail politics in Iowa and New Hampshire may well be overstated, an artifact of a time before super PACs saturated the airwaves, social media reached voters’ phones and the fame invaded the zeitgeist no matter who was in the restaurants and pizzerias.
“Retail has always been mostly theater, but now it’s all about performance for the cameras, not meeting everyday people and listening to their concerns,” said Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee.
For someone like DeSantis, who joined the primary campaign relatively late, appearances like his two July 4 parades demonstrate he’s pushing hard and taking New Hampshire seriously, said Cullen, who is now a Republican consultant in the state.
As for the former president, “Can you imagine Trump walking in Wolfeboro’s 4th of July Parade?” He asked. “I do not think so.”
Limiting Trump’s public appearances and emphasizing large gatherings rather than good humor with a few dozen supporters can help preserve the former president’s stardom and mystique among his followers while projecting confidence. And Republican primary voters already know how they feel about Trump. His fate in the primary contest may depend more on external factors — like his indictments in two cases and the trials that may ensue, as well as other investigations he faces — than on his powers of persuasion at an Iowa Pizza Ranch. .
Cheung insisted, even as he outlined a relatively clear timeline for Trump, “It would be incorrect to write that he will spare retail politics and limit public appearances.”
But the rest of the Republican field, with weaker field operations and later starts, doesn’t have that luxury, said Dave Carney, another New Hampshire Republican consultant and veteran organizer.
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