A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of a player’s performance. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes… Numbers lie.
Houck’s place in Boston’s deep rotation remains secure with Corey Kluber move to the bullpen after posting the highest FIP (6.60) among all starters this season. Houck’s 5.30 ERA comes with a 4.14 FIP (and a 3.69 xFIP) as the former first-round pick has impressive peripherals to go along with an HR/ Unlucky FB and LOB%. Houck has seen more than twice as many flyballs leave the yard as usual for him, while only three starters among 70 qualifiers have a lower LOB% (Sandy Alcantara should also start throwing better with runners on base moving forward). Houck’s HR/FB rate and LOB% this season are well above his career ratings at the majors.
Houck isn’t going to dive very deep in games (and he’s safer to bench him in his next scheduled start against Tampa Bay’s league-best offense) because he tends to struggle third time around. through alignments. But the former top prospect is finding out. He added a lot of movement at its locations in May, when he held the batters to a .250 xwOBA. Houck ranks in the top 10 among CSW starters this season while rack up swings and misseshe therefore has a real advantage for a pitcher who remains available in more than 80% of Yahoo leagues.
Any starter with an ERA below 2.00 is due to regression, but Elder could be explosive. He was a fantastic huge surprise (and assist) while leading MLB in the ERA, but it comes with a 4.45 xERA. Elder’s K-BB% (14.0) barely ranks in the top 50 starters this season, and his HardHit% sits in the bottom 10th percentile, which isn’t usually a recipe for success. throw. Nor is he a low-strikeout, high-percentage GB pitcher playing for a Braves defense that ranks last in UZR.
Elder is a terrific story in a year full of throwing explosions, but he posted a 4.46 ERA (4.45 FIP) last year at the minors, and THE BAT is projecting a 4.63 ERA and a season remnant WHIP of 1.38. He’s a screaming contender in the fantasy leagues.
Kopech disappointed, with a 4.52 ERA and bottom-three FIP among qualified starters. But he’s produced a telling 29:3 K:BB ratio (19.1 innings) in his last three starts, including a 2.04 SIERA and a tiny WHIP of 0.57 over this period. A change in mechanics led to increased fastball speed and a bunch of puffs, with Kopech among the leaders in K-BB% for the past three weeks.
Kopech looked like a future star in 2021, and he’s healthy again. Whether he can hold out remains to be seen.but Kopech is another former top pitching prospect finally breaking out.
Volpe only hit .181 in May, with an ugly 32.1K% and a 4.5BB%. He’s on pace for 20+ homers and nearly 40 interceptions (he’s a perfect 13-for-13 on SB attempts), but only 11 qualified hitters have lower wRC+ this season. The rookie should remain highly valuable in the fantasy leagues if he stays on the New York roster, even if he doesn’t make a major leap to the board this season, but there’s a risk he’ll start to lose weight. game time or take a trip to minors with Oswald Peraza Heartbreaking healthy Triple-A (148 wRC+). Giancarlo Stanton And Josh Donaldson both have to come back soon, which may result in Isiah Kiner-Falefa see more time at SS.
Volpe is undoubtedly a future fantasy star, but his playing time is under threat in the short term.